Gridiron Challenge: Week 14 preview

By Tristan H. Cockcroft
ESPN.com
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Each week, Tristan H. Cockcroft offers his strategies for the Gridiron Challenge game. Look for his best and worst matchups every Thursday.

Matchups I Like

Drew Brees, QB, Saints (@ATL, 7.7 price tag): He passed for 219 yards, two touchdowns and an interception the last time these teams played (in Week 7). Since that day, all the Falcons have done is serve up eight touchdowns through the air in five games, making even guys like Gus Frerotte, Jeff Garcia and Joey Harrington look solid in the process. Folks, Brees is a much better quarterback than those guys. I expect big things.

Joey Galloway, WR, Buccaneers (@HOU, 5.3): So much for the switch to Luke McCown killing Joey's chances at a decent fantasy day. Of McCown's 37 pass attempts in Week 13, a team-leading nine went in Joey Galloway's direction (Earnest Graham was the only other guy even close, with eight), and he caught seven of them for 159 yards. Now he gets the Texans, who are bruised and battered in the secondary.

Ryan Grant, RB, Packers (OAK, 5.5): Nobody has done as poorly against the run as Oakland has of late. For the season, the Raiders have allowed 20 rushing scores, 10 in the past five weeks, while making Ron Dayne, Kolby Smith and Chester Taylor look like All-Pros in the process. Grant, meanwhile, is on a ridiculous tear, with three 100-yard efforts and four scores in his past six games.

Edgerrin James, RB, Cardinals (@SEA, 5.3): I have to hand it to James; one thing he does get up for are division affairs. Case in point: He rushed for 128 yards and a score against these Seahawks in Week 2, marking a second consecutive game against them with 100-plus yards and a touchdown. Seattle's defense might be performing adequately against the pass, but against the run, it has allowed nine scores over the past five weeks.

Jamal Lewis, RB, Browns (@NYJ, 5.6): A lot of this has to do with buying in on the cheap for his soft remaining schedule -- in particular, this matchup has a strong chance of boosting him into the 6.0 range for Week 15. After all, the Jets have allowed 154.8 rushing yards per game in their last four games. Lewis, meanwhile, has averaged 17.2 fantasy points per game during that same span (five contests).

Kolby Smith, RB, Chiefs (@DEN, 4.6): Hey, considering that was his second career NFL start, and the opponent was the Chargers, who effectively took command of the game after halftime, a 21-carry, 83-yard effort in Week 13 isn't bad for Smith. It follows up an exceptional debut in Week 12 (150 rushing yards, two scores), and now he gets the Broncos and their 31st-ranked run defense.

Roddy White, WR, Falcons (NO, 4.9): Wow, the Falcons have a deep threat? Really? Believe it, folks, as White has back-to-back 100-yard efforts, each with a score, and it doesn't seem like it matters who's throwing him the ball, either. Look back to Week 7, the last time these teams met, when White had eight catches for 110 yards and a score. He schooled Jason David back then, and I'm expecting him to do it again here.

Sleepers

Kellen Clemens, QB, Jets (CLE, 4.6 price tag): Hey, there are people out there in two-quarterback leagues (myself included), and what's the Gridiron Challenge game? You got it, a two-quarterback game. Starting Clemens might seem absurd on the surface, but you can't ignore this matchup. Everyone passes on the Browns, who have allowed a league-high 27 passing touchdowns. I repeat: Everyone passes on the Browns.

Fred Jackson, RB, Bills (MIA, 4.7): There's a chance Marshawn Lynch will return for this game, but if not, Jackson would make a fine fill-in for those of you looking for a cheaper option as your second running back (or flex option in traditional fantasy). Jackson totaled 151 yards in his first career start in Week 13, and in Week 14 he matches up against the Dolphins, who are ranked 32nd in the league against the run (149.7 yards per game) and have allowed 16 rushing scores.

Matchups I'd Avoid

Plaxico Burress, WR, Giants (@PHI, 4.9, price tag): If you've been watching him play lately, it should be obvious that his ankle and knee issues are forcing him to play at noticeably less than 100 percent. He's completely out of synch with Eli Manning, a vast shift from their astonishing early-season chemistry, and I honestly believe that until he sits out a game to rest what ails him, he's going to disappoint you weekly the rest of the way.

Ron Dayne, RB, Texans (TB, 4.5): Sure, he has done a fine job since stepping in as Houston's starter, but let's put this in perspective, shall we? In the past three weeks, Dayne has averaged 84.3 rushing yards with one score, good but hardly great numbers, and remember, his matchups were favorable. This one is much tougher; the Buccaneers have allowed 69.0 rushing yards per game and only one score over their past four games.

Justin Fargas, RB, Raiders (@GB, 5.3): Fargas has been quite a bit better than Dayne since stepping in as a starter, and he's a bit pricier as a result. That's part of the reason to avoid him. The other is that Green Bay's strength on defense is in its front seven; the Packers have allowed four rushing touchdowns all year, second only to the Steelers. I don't expect a terrible game from Fargas, just a so-so one.

Eli Manning, QB, Giants (@PHI, 6.4): He's going to have to show me something to make me not adhere to his strict first-half/second-half career trend. In his career, Eli has 42 touchdowns, 23 interceptions and an 83.6 passer rating in the first eight games of a season, and 29-38-64.6 numbers in the final eight games. Plus, he has faced the Eagles in each of the past two Decembers, and totaled one touchdown and five interceptions.

Laurence Maroney, RB, Patriots (PIT, 5.1): The Patriots barely give him a noticeable number of snaps, have granted him 15 carries only four times all year and regularly lift him in the red zone for Heath Evans and Kevin Faulk. Need any more reasons to sit him? Oh, that's right, he also battles the Steelers this week, and they bring with them the game's second-ranked rush defense (76.8 ypg). 'Nuff said.

Derrick Mason, WR, Ravens (IND, 4.5): He's the Ravens' one reliable receiver and is on pace for more than 100 catches. Despite that, he has hardly been notable for fantasy since the team's Week 8 bye, averaging 6.8 fantasy points in five contests. Good stat: Justin Gage has three fewer targets (37) than him during that span. Mason has quieted down, and the Colts' second-ranked pass defense (168.7 ypg) should keep him quiet.

Vince Young, QB, Titans (SD, 6.5): It's nice to finally see him throwing the ball -- he's averaging 36 pass attempts per game over the past four weeks -- but what's troubling is that during that span, he has more interceptions (6) than touchdowns (4). That's not a good mix against a team like the Chargers, who are leading the league in picks with 20, 13 of them the past six weeks alone. If Young slips behind early and is forced to air it out, watch out.

The "Big Guns" to Avoid

They rank among the 10 most expensive at their respective positions, but the matchup dictates you'd be better off spending the money elsewhere.

Brett Favre, QB, Packers (OAK, 7.5 price tag): This one has everything to do with his price tag, the matchup and his elbow and shoulder injuries than my doubting him. Bottom line: Favre can't possibly be at 100 percent for this game, can he? Even if he is, teams have made a habit of dominating the Raiders by gashing their front seven early and often. I expect a huge dose of Ryan Grant here -- not a lot of throws.

Frank Gore, RB, 49ers (MIN, 6.2): All he seems to do is offer up one great game, then follow it up with a steady chain of stinkers. Gore will matter as a pass-catcher here, but on the ground he could ask for a lot better matchup than one against the league's top run defense (70.5 ypg). The last time he faced the Vikings (Week 9, 2006), he totaled 77 yards with no scores. He was doing better then, and these Vikings are better now.

Willie Parker, RB, Steelers (@NE, 5.8): He's averaging 73.4 rushing yards per game and 3.0 yards per carry in his past five contests, and he's also dealing with some fumbling issues. Troubling stat: Ronnie Brown has outscored him for the year in five fewer games played. That says a lot about Parker's lackluster season, and there's also a risk here that the Patriots could take the run out of the game early on.

Have No Fear

Their matchups might not look good, but you shouldn't be worried.

Peyton Manning, QB, Colts (@BAL, 8.0 price tag): His Week 13 performance -- 288 passing yards, four scores -- tells us all we need to know about why you shouldn't fret about Manning's matchups, but is this really a troublesome matchup in the first place? The Ravens have allowed 10 passing scores the past five weeks, and Manning has averaged 290.8 passing yards per game, with nine total touchdowns, in five career regular-season meetings against the Ravens.

Tristan's Gridiron Challenge Lineup: Week 14

Week 13 Recap: I'm entitled to gripe, right? Every fantasy owner does at some point. Brett Favre wound up getting hurt, while Kellen Winslow got robbed of that score at Arizona. Curses! On the bright side, Joey Galloway (15 points) and Hines Ward (21) dominated, and yet again, Jamal Lewis was money while facing that cakewalk schedule of his. Yup, plenty of repeat business for me in Week 14. Score: 97 points in Week 13, 1,326 points for the season (67.3 percent).

QB1: Drew Brees, Saints (@ATL, 7.7 price tag)
QB2: Carson Palmer, Bengals (STL, 7.5)
RB1: Ryan Grant, Packers (OAK, 5.5)
RB2: Jamal Lewis, Browns (@NYJ, 5.6)
WR1: Joey Galloway, Buccaneers (@HOU, 5.3)
WR2: Laveranues Coles, Jets (CLE, 4.8)
TE: Kellen Winslow Jr., Browns (@NYJ, 5.0)
K: Rian Lindell, Bills (MIA, 3.8)
D/ST: Jacksonville Jaguars (CAR, 5.2)

Tristan H. Cockcroft covers fantasy sports for ESPN.com. You can e-mail him here.



 
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